The problem
People and institutions had no legal, liquid U.S. market to trade or hedge on real-world event outcomes
What they do
CFTC-regulated exchange for trading yes/no contracts on sports, politics, economics and weather
Traction $2B ARR revenue run-rate (mid-2026); 90%+ of U.S. prediction-market volume; volume $52B → $178B annualized in 6 mo
Hiring trend
- Open roles
- 46
- Ops roles
- 4
- Headcount
- ~580
Headcount ~240 (2025, Revelio) → ~580 (Sep 2026, Tracxn/LinkedIn), est. 2x+ in a year; 49 open roles
Hiring in
- New York
- Remote
Latest news
Sep 2026
Finalizing ~$1B round at ~$40B valuation, expected to be last before a 2027 IPO ↗Glassdoor
4.4 ★ 27 reviews ↗Funding
- Last round
- $1B
- Stage
- Series F
- Date
- May 2026
Led by Coatue
- Hiring+246 open roles on the live job board (30+ roles = +2)
- Funding recency+2Series F · $1B, May 2026 (5 months ago): 6 months or less = +1.5, $100M+ round +0.5
- Traction+1.5Strong growth: $2B ARR revenue run-rate (mid-2026); 90%+ of U.S. prediction-market volume; volume $52B → $178B annualized in 6 mo
- Red flags−11 significant flag in the last 24 months, −1 eachUnresolved, material state-by-state legal fight over its sports contracts (the bulk of its volume and revenue): the 9th and 6th Circuits ruled for Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee (Aug–Sep 2026), court orders block sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Washington, New York's AG is suing to shut it down and seeks $36B (Jul 2026), and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide. Watch-out, not scored: Oct 2026 wash-trading allegations in its ether perps market, after which it moved to end a volume-rewards program.Ars Technica: 6th Circuit rules states can enforce gambling laws on Kalshi (Sep 2026) ↗ · Gothamist: New York sues to shut down Kalshi, seeks $36B (Jul 2026) ↗ · Gambling Insider: New Jersey takes Kalshi fight to the Supreme Court (Sep 2026) ↗ · SBC Americas: Kalshi moves to end volume rewards after wash-trading scrutiny (Oct 2026) ↗
- Total4.52 + 2 + 1.5 − 1 = 4.5 → Race (4.25–4.74)
Distance (Half) is a separate read on how long the lead can last. It doesn't change the score.
Distance
Half · edge: grows with users
Clear category leader with 90%+ of U.S. prediction-market volume and a liquidity network that compounds, now adding institutional and perps lines; held back from Marathon because state gambling rulings could fence off sports, its biggest market, and Polymarket, Robinhood and sportsbooks are crowding in.
Sources: Kalshi: $1B Series F at $22B, 90%+ U.S. share (May 2026) ↗ · Ars Technica: circuit split on state gambling laws (Sep 2026) ↗
Watch-outs
Unresolved, material state-by-state legal fight over its sports contracts (the bulk of its volume and revenue): the 9th and 6th Circuits ruled for Nevada, Ohio and Tennessee (Aug–Sep 2026), court orders block sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Washington, New York's AG is suing to shut it down and seeks $36B (Jul 2026), and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide. Watch-out, not scored: Oct 2026 wash-trading allegations in its ether perps market, after which it moved to end a volume-rewards program.
Sources: Ars Technica: 6th Circuit rules states can enforce gambling laws on Kalshi (Sep 2026) ↗ · Gothamist: New York sues to shut down Kalshi, seeks $36B (Jul 2026) ↗ · Gambling Insider: New Jersey takes Kalshi fight to the Supreme Court (Sep 2026) ↗ · SBC Americas: Kalshi moves to end volume rewards after wash-trading scrutiny (Oct 2026) ↗
Last checked Oct 25, 2026